September 2019 Real Estate Update

September 2019 Report

After the heat of the spring market, activity typically slows down markedly in July and August. In September, listings start pouring on the market again to fuel the relatively short autumn selling season - in fact, September is sometimes the single month with the highest number of new listings. What occurs in the next 2+ months, before the mid-winter holiday doldrums begin, will be the next major indicator of market conditions and direction.

People Moving In & Out of San Mateo County

Using new U.S. Census estimates released 8/29/19, this chart attempts to identify U.S. counties, states and international regions with the highest number of residents migrating to and from our county. In the Bay Area, there is a general trend outward from more expensive to more affordable places, while in-bound migration is deeply affected not only by exchanges between Bay Area counties, but people arriving from other parts of the state, country and world. Areas often have large two-way exchanges of residents. 

Foreign in-migration is a huge issue in the Bay Area, but it will be another year before any impact of new U.S. immigration policy on foreign in-migration in 2018 shows up in census numbers.

Median House Sales Price Trends

In 2019 YTD, some cities median sales prices are up a little, some down a little, and some about the same as in 2018. For San Mateo county, the median house sales price is virtually unchanged. Note that some cities - such as Redwood Shores and Atherton - have relatively few sales, which makes their median prices more prone to anomalous fluctuations. Full year 2019 prices may well be significantly different than the YTD prices.

Bay Area Luxury Home Sales

San Mateo County has the second largest luxury home market in the Bay Area - after much more populous Santa Clara County - and the largest for "ultra-luxury" homes selling for $5 million and above.